SPECIAL ELECTION EDITION · APRIL 21, 2026
VOTE NO ON THE REDISTRICTING AMENDMENT
GERRYMANDERVIRGINIA.COM
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DATA TRANSPARENCY

Methodology & Sources

A full accounting of how every statistic on this site was calculated, where the data comes from, and the assumptions we made.

01

The 776,154 Disenfranchised Voters Figure

This figure represents the total number of Republican votes cast in the 2024 congressional elections in the four districts that would flip from Republican-leaning to Democrat-leaning under the proposed map: Districts 1, 5, 6, and 7.

The breakdown by district is as follows:

District2024 GOP Votes2024 GOP %Proposed GOP %Change
CD-1 (Wittman)269,65756.3%~47.5%−8.8 pts
CD-5 (McGuire)249,56457.3%~42.0%−15.3 pts
CD-6 (Cline)256,93363.1%~43.0%−20.1 pts
Total776,154

District 7 (Vindman) is currently held by a Democrat and is already counted as a Democratic seat, so its Republican voters (approximately 48.5% of ~280,000 total votes) are not included in the "flipped district" total — though the proposed map would make it even more Democratic.

Source: 2024 Virginia congressional election results from the Virginia Department of Elections [1] and VPAP [3]. Proposed partisan lean projections are based on the UVA Center for Politics analysis [4] and Ballotpedia's district-by-district breakdown [5].

02

The 10-to-1 Democrat-to-Republican District Ratio

Virginia currently has 11 congressional districts. Under the current bipartisan map (drawn after the 2020 census by the Virginia Redistricting Commission), the partisan split is approximately 6 Democratic seats to 5 Republican seats — closely reflecting Virginia's statewide partisan balance.

Under the proposed Democratic map, independent analysts project the following outcomes:

OutcomeCurrent MapProposed Map
Safe Democratic seats610
Safe/Lean Republican seats51
Competitive seats0–10

This produces a 10-to-1 ratio of Democratic to Republican seats. The sole remaining Republican-leaning district would be the 9th District (Southwest Virginia), which is so heavily Republican that it cannot be gerrymandered away without obvious constitutional problems.

Source: UVA Center for Politics [4], Ballotpedia [5], VPAP [3], and Cardinal News [6].

03

The 4-of-11 Districts Flipped Figure

The four districts projected to flip from Republican-held to Democrat-held under the proposed map are:

  • CD-1 — Currently held by Rep. Rob Wittman (R). The proposed map adds large portions of Fairfax County and removes rural Republican areas, shifting the district from R+12 to approximately D+5.
  • CD-5 — Currently held by Rep. John McGuire (R). The proposed map removes Southside Virginia and adds Charlottesville/UVA areas, shifting from R+15 to approximately D+16.
  • CD-6 — Currently held by Rep. Ben Cline (R). The proposed map removes the conservative Shenandoah Valley core and adds Harrisonburg, Charlottesville, and Northern Virginia suburbs, shifting from R+28 to approximately D+14.
  • CD-2 — Currently held by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R). The proposed map redraws Virginia Beach boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning precincts, shifting from a competitive seat to a lean-Democratic seat.

Note: Some analyses count only 3 definitive flips (CD-5, CD-6, and CD-1), with CD-2 as a "likely flip." We use 4 as the projected number based on the consensus of UVA Center for Politics [4] and Ballotpedia [5].

Source: UVA Center for Politics [4], Ballotpedia [5], VPAP [3].

04

Fairfax County Split: 3 Pieces to 5 Pieces

Under the current bipartisan map, Fairfax County — Virginia's most populous jurisdiction with approximately 1.2 million residents — is divided among three congressional districts:

  • CD-8 (Arlington/Alexandria/Fairfax core)
  • CD-10 (Western Fairfax/Loudoun)
  • CD-11 (Central Fairfax)

Under the proposed Democratic map, Fairfax County would be divided among five congressional districts:

  • Portions would be added to the redrawn CD-1 (to dilute Republican rural voters with Democratic Fairfax precincts)
  • Portions would be added to the redrawn CD-7 (the "Lobster District")
  • The existing CD-8, CD-10, and CD-11 boundaries would all shift

This fragmentation is a classic gerrymandering technique called "cracking" — splitting a large geographic community across multiple districts to dilute its unified political voice, while simultaneously "packing" Republican-leaning precincts into districts designed to be safely Democratic.

Source: FFXnow reporting [10], VPAP redistricting maps [3], Virginia Mercury [7].

05

The 90-Day Constitutional Notice Requirement

Article XII, Section 1 of the Virginia Constitution requires that proposed constitutional amendments be agreed upon by the General Assembly and then published and submitted to voters. Critically, Virginia law requires that any constitutional amendment appearing on a ballot must be finalized and published at least 90 days before the election to give voters adequate time to review what they are voting on.

The April 21, 2026 special election was called by the Democratic-controlled General Assembly on an accelerated timeline. Early voting for the April 21 election begins April 11, 2026. The amendment text was not finalized and published 90 days before early voting began, meaning voters began casting ballots before the constitutionally required notice period had elapsed.

This procedural violation has been cited by Republican lawmakers and legal scholars as grounds for challenging the validity of the election itself, independent of the merits of the redistricting proposal.

Source: Virginia Department of Elections [2], Virginia Constitution Article XII [11].

06

The Bipartisan Virginia Redistricting Commission

In 2020, Virginia voters approved a constitutional amendment (by a 66% margin) creating the Virginia Redistricting Commission — a bipartisan body specifically designed to take congressional and state legislative redistricting out of the hands of partisan politicians.

The commission is composed of: - 4 Democratic members of the General Assembly - 4 Republican members of the General Assembly - 8 citizen members (4 selected by Democratic leaders, 4 by Republican leaders)

This 8-8 bipartisan structure requires genuine compromise to produce a map. The commission drew Virginia's current congressional districts after the 2020 census, producing the current 6-5 Democratic-to-Republican split that most analysts consider a fair reflection of Virginia's political composition.

The proposed 2026 amendment would allow the Democratic-controlled General Assembly to bypass this commission entirely — redrawing maps on a party-line vote without any Republican input or citizen oversight. This directly contradicts the intent of the 2020 voter-approved commission amendment.

Source: Virginia Constitution Article II, Section 6-A [11], Virginia Department of Elections [2].

07

Zip Code to District Mapping Methodology

The zip code lookup tool on this site maps each Virginia zip code to its current congressional district based on the district boundaries established after the 2020 census.

Important caveats:

  • Zip codes are not the same as congressional districts. Congressional district boundaries follow census block lines, while zip codes follow postal delivery routes. Some zip codes straddle district boundaries.

2. Where a zip code straddles two districts, we assign it to the district that contains the majority of that zip code's population. This is accurate for the vast majority of residents in that zip code.

3. The proposed district boundaries shown in results are based on the Democratic map passed by the Virginia General Assembly in early 2026 and analyzed by VPAP [3], UVA Center for Politics [4], and Ballotpedia [5]. These are projections, not certified final boundaries, as the amendment has not yet been approved by voters.

4. Partisan vote percentages for current districts are drawn from the 2024 congressional election results [1][8]. Projected partisan percentages for proposed districts are estimates based on precinct-level analysis by UVA Center for Politics [4] and Ballotpedia [5].

5. The "voters who would lose representation" figure for each district is the total Republican votes cast in that district in 2024. This is used as a proxy for the number of Republican voters whose preferred candidate would likely no longer win under the new district lines. It does not mean those voters cannot vote — it means their votes would be effectively diluted into a district designed to elect a Democrat.

If your zip code is not found, please visit the [Virginia Citizen Portal](https://www.elections.virginia.gov/citizen-portal/) to look up your exact district.

08

A Note on Framing and Perspective

This website is an advocacy tool opposing the proposed redistricting amendment. We believe the data and facts presented here are accurate and fairly sourced, but we acknowledge that this site presents one perspective on a contested political issue.

Proponents of the amendment argue that the current Republican-drawn maps (from 2011, before the bipartisan commission existed) were themselves gerrymandered, and that this amendment corrects historical imbalances. They also argue that Virginia's shifting demographics justify a more Democratic map.

We disagree with this framing for the following reasons: - Virginia's current map was drawn by the bipartisan commission, not by Republicans alone - The commission process was approved by 66% of Virginia voters in 2020 - Two wrongs do not make a right — responding to past gerrymandering with new gerrymandering harms all voters - The 10-to-1 ratio proposed far exceeds any defensible reading of Virginia's actual partisan balance

Readers are encouraged to review all sources cited here and form their own conclusions.